The Numbers Behind Francesco Bagnaia's 'Difficult to Accept' MotoGP Comparison: A Deep Dive into the Statistics
One of the most frustrating aspects of Francesco Bagnaia's 2025 MotoGP season was his inability to match his own pace from the previous year. This was a stark contrast to the previous season, where he was a force to be reckoned with.
"It's very difficult to accept because, looking at the race times from last year, compared to this season, I could be winning, or fighting for a win," Bagnaia said during the campaign. "This season I'm not able to repeat [those times], and I'm much slower compared to last year."
The double world champion's frustration was evident, and unfortunately, the trend continued throughout the season. However, not all 2025 races can be directly compared to those in 2024 due to various factors.
Here's a breakdown of the numbers and comparisons that highlight the challenges Bagnaia faced:
- Race Exclusions: Several rounds - Termas de Rio Hondo, Balaton Park, Brno, and Valencia - were not part of the 2024 calendar, making direct comparisons impossible. Other races were affected by wet conditions, restarts, or altered race distances.
- Barcelona and Misano Comparisons: To ensure meaningful comparisons, Barcelona used the 2024 Catalan GP, and Misano used the Emilia Romagna GP due to rain at the 2024 San Marino GP.
- Other Factors: Temperature differences, grip, grid position, and tire choice were not considered, despite most tire compounds remaining unchanged. This further complicated the comparison.
Despite these challenges, 18 races could be compared, and Bagnaia was faster than his 2024 pace in just four of them. Two of those improvements came at Motegi, where Bagnaia won both the Sprint and Grand Prix. The other gains were at Aragon Sprint (held on a dirtier track in 2024) and COTA Sprint, where he improved from eighth in 2024 to third in 2025.
In the remaining 14 races, Bagnaia was slower than his 2024 performance on the GP25.
- Mandalika: Bagnaia qualified 16th and lost 25 seconds compared to his 2024 race-winning time in the Sprint.
- Mugello: This was arguably the most frustrating. Bagnaia finished fourth, 22.910s slower than his 2024 winning pace, but only 5.081s behind team-mate Marc Marquez, who won despite being 17.829s slower than Bagnaia in 2024.
- Phillip Island: A nightmare for Bagnaia, as he was much slower in 2025, while race winner Marco Bezzecchi went significantly faster than Jorge Martin in 2024.
Overall Pace Comparison: A broader comparison of all comparable race-winning times, regardless of Bagnaia's finish, revealed a more comprehensive picture.
- Faster or Slower: Of the 28 comparable races, 13 were faster in 2025, while 15 were won with slower times than the previous year.
- ** Ducati Dominance:** Interestingly, 12 of the 15 'unbeaten' 2024 race times were set by Ducati GP24 riders: Seven by Bagnaia, three by Enea Bastianini, and two by Jorge Martin, the world champion.
This highlights the challenge Bagnaia faced in repeating his 2024 performance. Even his perfect 2025 Motegi double was only a marginal improvement on his winning times from the previous year.
Controversial Insights:
- Marquez's Dominance: Marc Marquez's victories in 2025, despite being slower than Bagnaia in 2024, showcased his ability to manage a comfortable lead and still win.
- Track Conditions: The Aragon Grand Prix win by Marquez was a standout improvement, achieved on a much cleaner surface compared to his 2024 victory for Gresini.
- Mugello, Assen, and Misano: These GPs saw the 'slowest' victories relative to 2024 pace, with Marquez winning at Mugello despite being slower than Bagnaia, and Bastianini winning at Misano despite being slower than Bagnaia in 2024.
In conclusion, Bagnaia's 2025 season was a challenging journey, and the numbers tell a story of missed opportunities and a need for consistent performance across all tracks and conditions.
